Brief Review of New Projected Electricity Balance for 2020

On 28 April 2020 the Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection approved new version of the Projected Electricity Balance for 2020 (or New Electricity Balance).

New Electricity Balance contains actual indicators achieved in January–March 2020, expectations for April 2020 and projections for May–December 2020. We have compared New Electricity Balance with its previous version approved by the Ministry on 13 March 2020.

Key points of New Electricity Balance and comparison results are presented below:

  • There is a decrease in total electricity generation to 143.1 TWh or by 6% for the whole year (10% and 11% reduction in electricity generation is projected for May and June). It is explained by respective decrease in gross electricity consumption to 139.2 TWh or by 6%.
  • NPPs, TPPs and HPPs will reduce their generation by 9%, 8% and 5%, respectively.
  • No material changes are expected for CHPs and co-generation plants as their operation is based on their role as heat producers during fall-winter heating period.
  • Electricity generation by renewable electricity producers will increase by 10.2% in total. At the same time, boom in electricity generation by solar power plants is expected while wind power plants will slightly decline generation.

In particular, electricity generation by SPPs will increase by 1.2 TWh (or 21.7%) and reach 6.67 TWh in 2020. In March 2020 SPPs exceeded projected electricity generation by 45%.

In 2020 wind producers will reduce electricity generation from 3.950 TWh to 3.858 TWh or by 2.3%.

The Ministry provided no explanations about approach applied to estimation of RES potential productions. Assumptions on RES curtailment are not clear.

  • The Ministry forecasts increase in electricity production by HPSPs by 19.5% with relevant increase in electricity consumption (in pumping mode).
  • Reduction in import and export transactions is expected by 9% and 18%, respectively.

No electricity import from Russia and Belarus will take place since April 2020. Electricity export to Moldova will be suspended during April–June 2020 with further significant reduction (less than half) by the end of year.

Projected Electricity Balance 2020 approved 2020 04 28 Eng

Projected Electricity Balance 2020 approved 2020 04 28 Ukr